MONTGOMERY — Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District has become one of the most closely watched races in the country after new polling showed Democratic U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures locked in a virtual dead heat under newly restored congressional boundaries.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released internal polling showing Figures trailing Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques by just one percentage point, 45% to 44%. The survey, conducted by Democratic pollster IMPACT Research from June 22-25, questioned 400 likely voters.
The poll underscores how dramatically the political landscape has shifted after the U.S. Supreme Court allowed Alabama to conduct the 2026 elections using the congressional map approved by the Republican-controlled Legislature in 2023. The decision replaced the court-drawn district used in the 2024 election, when Figures won by nearly nine percentage points.
The restored district significantly changes the political makeup of Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District. The Black voting-age population falls from approximately 49% to less than 40%, and the district no longer includes much of Mobile, Figures’ political base and hometown. Political analysts say those changes transformed what had been a Democratic-leaning district into one that now favors Republicans.
Recognizing the challenge, the DCCC placed Figures on its Frontline Program, a designation reserved for Democratic incumbents considered among the party’s most vulnerable members.
“This poll shows that Alabamans are poised to reject Republicans’ cynical politics and re-elect Shomari because he’s focused on solving America’s affordability crisis and creating opportunities for all families to thrive,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a statement.
Republicans, however, argue the polling reflects growing momentum for their party in Alabama and say the district naturally aligns with the state’s conservative voting trends.
Marques, a state representative from Enterprise, has quickly emerged as the Republican frontrunner, earning endorsements from President Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Katie Britt, and several influential conservative organizations, including the Alabama Farmers Federation. He must still secure the Republican nomination in the upcoming primary before advancing to the general election.
Gov. Kay Ivey called special primary elections after the Supreme Court’s ruling reinstated the Legislature’s map, effectively voiding congressional races previously held under the court-ordered district. Figures chose to seek reelection in the newly drawn district, saying it still includes many of the communities he currently represents.
The race has broader national implications.
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to be fiercely contested in November, making every competitive district critical. Political strategists from both parties view Alabama’s 2nd District as one of the GOP’s best pickup opportunities, while Democrats see it as essential to protecting their path toward regaining or maintaining influence in Congress.
The district stretches across portions of south and central Alabama, encompassing diverse rural and urban communities with varying economic priorities. Voters are expected to focus heavily on issues such as inflation, job creation, healthcare, agriculture, border security, education, and economic development.
Political observers also note the race highlights the continuing national debate over congressional redistricting and voting rights. Alabama’s congressional maps have been the subject of years of litigation over whether they provide Black voters with an equal opportunity to elect candidates of their choice.
As campaign season intensifies, both candidates are expected to raise millions of dollars while attracting national attention from political organizations eager to influence one of the country’s most competitive congressional contests.
With only a single point separating the candidates in early polling, Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District appears poised to become one of the defining House races of the 2026 midterm elections.
