The next speaker of the House could be a black Democrat. And Congress would never be the same.
In 230 years, there’s never been a black speaker, or any black lawmaker seriously in the running for the post. That could change after voters
Democrats are their closest to winning back the House in years. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has said she will run for speaker again, but after 16 years at the top, some lawmakers — and a rising number of Democratic candidates — want someone else to take over.
The prospect of a black speaker, which seemed like long shot just months ago, has started to bubble up more in private conversations in recent weeks, particularly among Democrats in the influential, 48-member Congressional Black Caucus.
After Rep. Joe Crowley of New York, a potential Pelosi successor, went down in a shocking primary defeat in June, the questions about who might replace her have only grown. And that raises the possibility of an African-American Democrat being sworn in as the 55th speaker on Jan. 3.
The members with the likeliest shot, according to more than 20 Democratic lawmakers and aides, include Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, currently the No. 3 House Democrat; Hakeem Jeffries of New York; Cedric Richmond of Louisiana, current chairman of the CBC; Elijah Cummings of Maryland; and Marcia Fudge of Ohio.
“I think it’s more than a possibility. It’s a probability,” said Fudge of the likelihood of a black speaker in 2019. Fudge strongly backs Clyburn for the job.
Electing a black lawmaker to the top job in the House — putting that Democrat in line to the presidency right after the vice president — would be a remarkable milestone. No African-American lawmaker has ever run a party caucus in either chamber or risen higher than majority whip, the No. 3 post, in the House leadership. Prior to Clyburn, the late Rep. William Gray III of Pennsylvania served as House majority whip from 1989 to 1991.
A Democratic speaker would also be in a unique position to take on President Donald Trump — who has openly stoked racial divides in the country — at a critical period for the party. Democrats are still searching for their next leader in the post-Barack Obama world, as well as their identity going forward. The next leader will be the face of the party until a presidential nominee is chosen in 2020, raising the stakes even higher.
“We want people to see that the Democratic leadership in the House of Representatives is, with some intentionality, very inclusive,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri, a senior member of the CBC. “It’s a powerful statement for the nation and maybe even for the world.”
Cleaver, like others interviewed for this article, cautioned that no members of the CBC are currently campaigning or recruiting support for a speakership bid. And the possibility of a black speaker, while it stokes excitement among some members, certainly isn’t guaranteed.
With 48 members, and possibly more in the next Congress, the CBC is a formidable bloc of votes inside the Democratic Caucus. The group may not be able to pick the next House Democratic leader outright, but opposition from the CBC can doom any leadership hopeful.
Pelosi, the first female speaker, has said she will go for the gavel again if Democrats take back the House. And her allies are confident that she’ll prevail in any internal showdown.
Minority Whip Steny Hoyer of Maryland, the No. 2 Democrat, has made clear he would vie for the position if Pelosi can’t reach 218 votes. Hoyer beat back a challenge from Clyburn for the No. 2 position in 2010, after Democrats lost their majority, and Democrats close to Hoyer believe he may finally get the brass ring this time, provided Pelosi is no longer in the mix.
“Mr. Hoyer is focused on taking back the House ensuring we have a Democratic majority in 2019,” said Mariel Saez, Hoyer’s spokeswoman.
But the defeat of Crowley, the 4th-ranking Democrat, has shifted, and in many cases, broadened, lawmakers’ thinking about who their next cast of leaders should be.
Eyeing leadership posts, in addition to Pelosi, Hoyer, Clyburn and other CBC members, are Reps. Adam Schiff, Pete Aguilar and Linda Sánchez of California; Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico; Cheri Bustos of Illinois; Mark Pocan of Wisconsin; and Richard Neal of Massachusetts. However, one thing is abundantly clear — if Pelosi can’t be speaker, it is difficult to see right now who is most likely to succeed her. Which makes it a wide-open contest if Pelosi fails to round up enough support to win a floor fight.
Clyburn, 78, is open to the possibility of being speaker, although he remains loyal to Pelosi.
“If the opportunity is there, absolutely,” Clyburn said in an interview. “I have been preparing myself for this role since my pre-teenage years.”
Clyburn was first elected to Congress in 1992. The eldest son of a fundamentalist minister, Clyburn was elected chairman of his NAACP youth chapter at 12 years old. Clyburn made his mark in the civil rights movement, became a teacher, and then did a long stint in South Carolina government before coming to Capitol Hill.
“You don’t go through all of that, making those kind of preparations, and not try to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves,” Clyburn added.
Clyburn is well-liked and well-respected among his colleagues, although, like Pelosi and Hoyer, Clyburn faces questions over his age and his already lengthy service in leadership, undercutting his ability to jump over either one of them or appeal to lawmakers eager for generational change.
But in the seniority conscious CBC, it may be hard for any more junior members to vault over Clyburn. Clyburn chaired the group in the late 1990s and is still its most influential voice.